Super PACs

 

DISCLOSE Developments

Representative Van Hollen reintroduced the DISCLOSE Act in the House, marking his continued support for legislation that would shine a light on dark money. After the torrent of secret money that infiltrated the 2012 elections, the disclosure bill should be a no brainer. Van Hollen and Democratic sponsors of the House DISCLOSE Act get that, but unfortunately no House Republican is yet willing to concede that the public has the right to know who is paying for their elections.

Over in the Senate, one Republican has acknowledged the need for better disclosure of election related spending by outside groups. Sen. Lisa Murkowski has joined Sen. Ron Wyden in offering a proposal for greater transparency. Given the recalcitrance of Republicans—especially Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell—on this issue, Senator Murkowski must be credited for her willingness to take a stand on making money in politics more transparent. We hope that her leadership will encourage more of her Republican colleagues to follow and that she and Senator Wyden will join forces with Senator Whitehouse—the champion of the DISCLOSE Act in the Senate—in an effort to get a robust disclosure bill through that chamber.

A look at money, transparency and policy since Citizens United v. FEC

The Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission Supreme Court ruling has left an indelible mark on U.S. politics. Since the January 2010 ruling outside groups and organizations have been able to promote their own special interests with neither accountability nor transparency. In the past three years, we've seen a flood of secretive money, the formation of super PACs and little done in the way of policy to reveal the source of the funding.

Our timeline breaks events into four categories: Courts (major court rulings and cases), Disclose (legislation around greater disclosure of political contributions and spending), Super PACs (trend and news for independent expenditure only committees) and FEC (decisions made by the Federal Election Commission).

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Latino vote: Still a bargain in election 2012?

For months, pundits on both the right and left have said Latino voters would determine the presidential election. It looks like they were right. Not only did President Barack Obama manage to win 71 percent of the Latino vote (second only to former President Bill Clinton’s historic 73 percent of the Latino vote in 1994), but in key battleground states like Florida, Nevada and Colorado where Latino voters make up between 15 and 18 percent of eligible voters, Obama secured super majorities of the Latino vote. In Florida, there’s a lively debate over whether the president managed to secure a majority of the traditionally Republican Cuban vote -- a historic victory if so.

Most importantly for Obama, the Latino base grew this year: All the indicators pointed to record high voter turnout from Latino voters this year.

Overall, 28 Latinos won House seats this election, creating the largest class of Latino U.S. lawmakers in history. In the Senate, Latinos gained a seat with the victory Republican Ted Cruz, the first Hispanic senator to be elected from Texas.

But for such an indisputably important demographic group and an election that saw more than $1 billion in outside spending, it appears that relatively little money was spent to influence the Latino vote using TV ads -- the most common way many campaigns get their message out and attempt to sway voters. In a political ad analysis of ads purchased on Spanish-language TV stations located in key swing states, Free Press found that from April to September the Obama campaign and supporting organizations had spent only $7 million — or 9 percent — of their ad dollars on Spanish language ads, while the Romney campaign and its supporters had spent a paltry $3.2 million, or 4 percent of their total ad dollars. These figures are especially disproportionate when placed into the larger context of this election cycle as media analysts project that over $300 billion was spent on political ads.

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Why Money Still Matters

As we continue to over-interpret the data point that was last Tuesday’s $6 billion election, one big question is what to make of the fact that the super PACs and 501(c) dark money groups have spent the last week pointing fingers at each other rather than celebrating – particularly the Republican groups that earned so much scrutiny from the press and so much scorn from those on the left.

Does this mean that Democrats’ reactions to Citizens United were overblown, and that money doesn’t really matter? That those of us who fret about the amount of money in politics should just get on with our lives, and care about something else?

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C-SPAN Discussion on Campaign Finance

On Monday morning, Sunlight Reporting Group Managing Editor Kathy Kiely was a guest on C-SPAN's Washington Journal. Her conversation with host John McArdle, and subsequent viewer questions, offers a great primer on the impact of money in politics this election year. From mega donors and super PACs to campaign spending and disclosure rules, it's a great video to check out.

Watch the full interview below.

How Independent are Outside Groups? Not very.

Almost a quarter of the $1.2 billion spent in this election cycle ($292.6 million.) has come from dark money organizations, typically 501(c) groups, which are not required to disclose their donors. These groups, led by Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, are afforded such leeway because they cast themselves as “social welfare organizations” engaged in non-political issue advocacy. These organizations claim to be independent of the political party infrastructure, and the overtly political super PACs, but their behavior suggests otherwise. We find, instead, that many of these groups' allocations of resources closely resembles the patterns observed in party committees, like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) or the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

We looked at the 33 outside groups with over $2 million in total spending as of November 2nd, excluding those organizations, which had only spent on the presidential race. By looking at which candidates these groups have spent in support or opposition of, as well as how much they have spent, we have calculated the group’s spending similarity to the Republican and Democratic Senatorial and Congressional committees. These scores range from -1 to 1. A score of 1 indicates that a group allocates its funds across the relevant races in exactly the same ratios as the committee to which it is being compared, and -1 indicates perfectly opposed allocations. Of the groups analyzed spending in the Senate, the average similarity score for that group as compared to the party committee with which it is aligned was 0.395. In the house the effects were notably weaker, with an average similarity score as compared to the aligned party committee of only 0.171. This indicates that outside groups pick and choose the House races in which to be involved much more selectively in the House than the Senate, as compared to party committees whose spending is more widespread.

A highly similar spending allocation indicates that an organization is working towards the same strategic goals as one of the party committees, while a directly opposing allocation indicates that it is working against that committee’s goals. One might expect that non-political groups would appear more independent than the overtly partisan super PACs. Were this the case, ‘non-political’ 501(c)s would tend to have scores closer to 0 than super PACs. However, analysis of the data here finds no evidence, that the spending of these 501(c) groups is any less partisan than the registered super PACs.

Our analysis found no statistically significant variation in these similarity scores between super PACs and the 501(c)s. If anything, the dark money groups seem to emulate one party’s spending or oppose the others spending to greater extent than do the super PACs. Instead, we find high levels of similarity between the party committees and their aligned outside group, which calls in to question the independence of these controversial groups.

Party Alignment     Organization Type
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Las Vegas – Average Political Ad Costs $1,000; Candidates get 40% Discount during the Final Stretch

Within 60 days of an election, every dollar spent by a candidate has the same television advertising buying power as $1.63 from any non-candidate source, according to a new analysis of advertisement contracts in the Las Vegas media market. During this period, FCC regulations mandate that TV stations charge candidates “no more per unit than the station charges its most favorite commercial advertisers” for the same ad time. As it turns out, this preferred status nets candidates a significant discount over super PACs, dark money organizations and party committees.

According to this new data—collected through Sunlight’s Political Ad Sleuth—candidates enjoy an average markdown of $364 off their typical $946 price tag for a thirty second spot, which constitutes a 38.5 percent price cut.

This helps to explain why, as Ezra Klein has pointed out, ads from Obama and his allies have been more frequent than ads from Romney and his allies. Because more money on the Republican side has been flowing into the election through super PACs and other outside groups, the GOP’s purchasing power is diminished.

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American Crossroads & Crossroads GPS spend $174 million; 70% from Anonymous Donors

The Crossroads network has spent approximately $174,285,625.40 on the 2012 election and almost three out of every four dollars (70.5%) of this organization’s spending has come from anonymous donors.

This sum essentially ensures that Crossroads will be the most influential outside group in this election cycle. To illustrate: Crossroads has doubled the spending of the pro-Romney super PAC Restore our Future and may even outpace the incredible performance of the Republican National Committee.

Crossroads GPS, the 501(c)4 arm that does not disclose its donors, has spent  $122,954,165.33 according to press releases and information reported to the FEC. GPS’s sister super PAC, American Crossroads, has shelled out another $51,331,460.070 in this election cycle. The Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie inspired powerhouse of outside spending has skewed more towards anonymous sources of funds in this election: only 44% of the $38.6 million that Crossroads doled out in the 2010 cycle came from GPS’s furtive patrons.

This indicates that either more donors or the donors who are giving the most are choosing to remain anonymous. Given the tremendous amount of attention that mega-donors like Sheldon Adelson have received for their political involvement, it is not surprising to discover that many donors are choosing secrecy.

It is important to keep in mind that there is no way to know how much Crossroads GPS is sitting on, and the balance of American Crossroads is only disclosed quarterly. Depending on its cash on hand, Crossroads may be within striking distance of the ambitious $240 million goal that was set when former Governor Haley Barbour signed on as chief fundraiser just over a year ago.

The two groups have combined for just $1.2 million in expenditures supporting a candidate, meaning that 99.3% of their spending is on negative ads. For comparison’s sake, 72% of the spending from all 822 super PACs in this election has been negative.

Money in the Senate elections, in 8 charts

With just over a month until Election Day, most forecasts have Democrats in a strong position to hold their majority in the Senate and have strengthened their position in the last few weeks, moving ahead in close seat polling.

But when it comes to the money, the Senate remains very competitive. In this analysis, we look at the money in 19 close races that the Cook Political Report has deemed “Toss-up”, “Lean”, or “Likely” races within the last month. (We’ve excluded the three-way race in Maine for analytical purposes.)

The quick summary is that, by our count, the Democrats have the lead in 11 of the 19 races. If money is determinative, this is not a great position for Democrats, since of the 19 seats we analyze, 15 are seats currently held by Democrats.

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