How likely is it that Karl Rove is right, and that Republicans will hold both the House and Senate in the 2006 elections? I don't pretend to know -- and remember, I'm the guy who once again is betting the Philadelphia Eagles will win the Superbowl, but let me offer a few thoughts as to why the GOP might very well have grounds for confidence. Let me also note that I don't have any particular Rove obsession: He's human, and he may well be absolutely wrong or saying something he knows is wrong for tactical reasons--declaring "Woe is me" might well be one of those sorts of things that depress turnout. In any case, here goes...