Campaigns for Congress aren't cheap, but incumbent members find plenty of financial supporters so they don't have to pay the bills themselves. Here's how to find out who your own congressman's cash constituents are, and how to interpret what you see.

Amid the continuing buzz of opinion polls that show great dissatisfaction with the president and Congress, there are some real elections taking place around the country. The 2006 primary election season is off and running and yesterday saw primaries in three more states – Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and my own state of Oregon.

Whenever I hear stories like the ones today about the deal reached to preserve a tax break for investors, I think back to a statistic that I once compiled at the Center for Responsive Politics, when it was my full-time job to track money in American politics.

When you stare, day in and day out, at databases that document the names and occupations of Americans who’ve given $1,000 or more to political candidates, PACs and parties, you tend to slip into the mindset that everybody gives, that you’re looking at a cross-section of the general population.

The hottest talk around Washington these days is all about the Democrats’ chances of taking back control of Congress in the 2006 elections. Republicans are understandably nervous at the prospect, especially as the President’s approval ratings continue their long, slow slide. Some Democrats are downright giddy.

Both sides seem to have locked on the image of post-election Washington that would emerge if the Democrats won control: a non-stop cavalcade of congressional investigations into Iraq, oil prices, pharmaceutical costs – you name it. All of this, of course, is seen as prologue to the 2008 presidential contest.

If you follow the never-ceasing ups and downs of political pollsters, you’re no doubt aware of all the unhappiness voters have been expressing this year with the incumbents in Congress. You might think from this that most members are in peril of having to start a new career after November 7^th, since the voters seem so restive.

Don’t bet on it. Absent an indictment, most incumbents – at least in the House of Representatives – will almost certainly glide to another term in office without much of a speed bump. The reelection rates for House incumbents in the last five elections have been 94%, 98%, 98%, 96% and 98%. The last time they dipped below 90% was in 1992 (when only 88% were reelected). The last time before that was in 1974.