With a new face officially in the mix, eight Republican candidates will take the stage again next week to spar about the economy, jobs, budget deficit and more at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Library in Simi Valley, Calif.
It will mark the first debate for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who joined the race in August just as former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty threw in the towel. Several of the latest polls now show Perry on the top of the pack, outshining Mitt Romney, who has led the group for several months.
Sunlight Live will cover the debate starting at ...
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Continue readingStupid Economy and Campaign Finance Analysis
After readings Bill's post about this convetional wisdom-bucking Barron's article predicting that the Republicans will hold onto to both Houses I decided to take a look at the same numbers that they were looking at. First let's look at the campaign finance information since that's how they decided to pick the winner of each individual race. Instead of looking at the numbers of every race I decided to use the National Journal's recently released House Race Rankings. I've discounted Democratic seats that they list because we're talking about the Republican Party holding off a Democratic challenge and so I looked the defensive position of the majority party. This is based data released by the FEC on October 20, 2006 and compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.
It’s Campaign Contributions and the Economy, Stupid–or is it?
When I first glanced at it, I didn't quite know what to make of Jim McTague's prediction in Barrons, or his system for arriving at it: that incumbents with big fundraising advantages will win their races. McTague thus argues that the GOP will hold Congress, that incumbents with bad poll numbers or in tight races like Sen. Conrad Burns in Montana or Sen. Robert Menendez in New Jersey will ride their campaign chests to victory, and that raising the most money is a sign of "superior grass-roots support."
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