As stated in the note from the Sunlight Foundation′s Board Chair, as of September 2020 the Sunlight Foundation is no longer active. This site is maintained as a static archive only.

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Did campaign spending buy Bush the 2000 and 2004 elections?

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Did higher levels of campaign spending buy George W. Bush the presidency in 2000 and 2004? And will all the money being spent on this year’s election move voters too? That’s the conclusion of an intriguing new political science paper that estimates that between 1972 and 2004, 13.6 percent of voters “incorrectly” pulled the lever for Republicans in presidential elections, while 8.7 percent “incorrectly” voted Democratic. Study author Sean Richey (a Georgia State University Professor) found that money was a factor. Republicans spend more of it, and that money often buys convincing and/or misleading ads.

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Money in the Senate elections, in 8 charts

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With just over a month until Election Day, most forecasts have Democrats in a strong position to hold their majority in the Senate and have strengthened their position in the last few weeks, moving ahead in close seat polling. But when it comes to the money, the Senate remains very competitive. In this analysis, we look at the money in 19 close races that the Cook Political Report has deemed “Toss-up”, “Lean”, or “Likely” races within the last month. (We’ve excluded the three-way race in Maine for analytical purposes.) The quick summary is that, by our count, the Democrats have the lead in 11 of the 19 races. If money is determinative, this is not a great position for Democrats, since of the 19 seats we analyze, 15 are seats currently held by Democrats.

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Money in the House elections, in 8 charts

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With just over a month before the election, the general consensus is that Democrats will have a tough time picking up the 25 seats they need to win back the house, despite some protestations. But when it comes to the money, Republicans appear to be in solid shape. Republicans have a fundraising lead in 57 of 90 races that the Cook Political Report has deemed “Toss-up”, “Lean”, or “Likely” races within the last month. Of these races, Republicans are the incumbent party in 54, and Democrats in 30. There are also six new districts in which it does not make sense to speak of an incumbent.

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CFC (Combined Federal Campaign) Today 59063

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